Intelligence unit predicts GE in 2012

Stephanie Sta Maria

London-based Economic Intelligence Unit believes that the general election will only be called once BN strengthens its position among the ethnic minorities and middle-class Malays.

PETALING JAYA: The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the general election will only be called next year to allow the Barisan Nasional (BN) government time to recoup the full support of ethnic minorities.


The latest EIU report for the forecast period of 2011-2015 alluded to the outcome of the recent Sarawak state election where waning Chinese support for the BN indicated that more work is needed if it is to win a two-thirds majority.

The EIU is the research and analysis centre of the Economist magazine.

The report also forecast yet another David-and-Goliath scenario with the cash-strapped opposition being pitted against the BN’s well-oiled machinery.

“The BN is well positioned to win the polls although the width of its victory margin remains unclear,” the report said.

“(Prime Minister) Najib (Tun Razak) has worked hard to present the image of a politician who is committed to economic reform, but this attitude has yet to resonate among the country’s ethnic-minority population.”

The EIU also highlighted Pakatan Rakyat’s shortcomings which included lack of funding and possibly strong competition from the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM) and People’s Welfare Party (Kita).

Both organisations have declared their intention to field candidates at the next general election and the EIU anticipates that the contest could eat into one-half of Pakatan’s 76 parliamentary seats.

But the report has not painted a particularly glowing outlook for either the BN or Pakatan in terms of both parties’ political strength and appeal.

“Although the 2008 election revealed that Umno could no longer count on the strong support of the majority of Malays, Pakatan still does not offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative,” it noted.

“The BN’s success will depend largely on whether it can keep its power bases intact in Sabah and Sarawak. The outcome of the Sarawak state election was not the resounding victory that it had hoped for.”

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The EIU warned that unresolved issues, like illegal foreign immigration to Sabah, could drive BN parties or individual parliamentary members there to defect or threaten to do so in order to secure greater influence within the coalition.

It also observed that while Umno continued enjoying the loyalty of rural voters, it may have lost the support of many educated, liberal middle-class Malays who are exposed to alternative news via the Internet.

“Umno’s internal leadership elections, which have been postponed until 2012, could be a source of political instability in the forecast period, particularly if the party fails to secure a clear victory at federal and state level in the next elections.”

“Under such circumstances, Najib’s credibility would be undermined, putting his position as Umno president and his role as head of the government at risk. This in turn could halt, or even reverse, his Najib’s programme of economic reforms.”

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim didn’t escape the EIU’s scrutiny either, with the report anticipating the likelihood of his conviction over sodomy charge within the next few months.

“Without him, the ties that unite the disparate parties making up the opposition coaltion – the reformist PKR, the conservative PAS and the left-of-centre DAP – are likely to fray,” it stated.

“And the process of choosing a new Pakatan spokesman could deepen the divisions within PKR as well as between the other component party members.”

3 Reasons for Najib's Election Headache

Its been now over 3 years since the historic 12th General Election. In that time, we can safely conclude the following

1. PAS is a doing a fair job in administering Kedah 
2. DAP is doing a fair job in administering Penang. 
3. In all states where PAS,PKR and DAP form a coalition Government, the end result has been a disaster. In the case of Perak, the PM put at end to their misery by engineering a takeover of the state 
4. PKR is a doomed party lead by people who are pure talk and 0 substance. They can't even hold on to their own headquarters. PKR to me is worse than Perkasa and exemplifies a total lack of an enforced code of morality OR responsibility. The only leader worth her salt in PKR is Fuziah Salleh. 
5. PKR's incompetence only be matched by a crisis in leadership affecting BN

I want to focus on point 5. Pak Lah, for all his positive attributes of fair play and 'ot being evil', had his short comings. Najib as the incoming Prime Minister, should have in theory easily cleaned house and be confident of calling an election once he had about 2 years to run the ship.

However, its been 3 years already, and the Prime Minister's public signals does not inspire confidence. He is using talk of 'defending Putrajaya', his Deputy is talking about facing the toughest election ever, and the Government is treating the election like how a student treats a dreaded final exam.

So what has caused this? After all, this is certainly not the case of the Opposition over performing. In fact, far from it, the Opposition has been shambolic. However, eventhough given that backdrop, there have been several other own goals on the Government's side that ensures the Opposition is still in the game.

Let me list them down

1. Perkasa :. Perkasa killed 1Malaysia. Perkasa's incessant antics ensured that 1Malaysia - was going to be undermined, ridiculed and ultimately rejected.
The numerous run ins Perkasa had with BN component parties, the DAP and the latest of which, even religious bodies, showed that the1Malaysiah message was hollow. It also laid bare the lie that the BN formula provided the concept of 'power sharing.' Even worse, Perkasa and their bloggers are even free to stoke religious issues and exploit peoples sensitivities without any condemnation from the Government.

Government Ministers found it beneath themselves to talk to leaders of the component parties - instead, they just relegated the "enforcement" action to Ibrahim Ali & Co. I would say the Perkasa factor alone have cost the Government about 40-50 seats, with no positive impact as those who support Perkasa would have voted UMNO/BN in any case.

2. A slowing economy: The PM recognized the importance of tackling the economy. He retained the portfolio of Minister of Finance, created the NEAC staffed by a panel of so called 'experts' and created an outfit called Pemandu. So now, we have 3 cooks - the Economic Planning Unit (EPU), the NEAC and the Pemandu to "manage" our economy.

And what is there by way of result?

Zilch. Nada. Kosong.

Our Q1 growth numbers was bad in comparison to our neighbors. Worse when you consider the explosion of working age adults in the country due to our changing demographics. The question then is why? Why can't Pemandu, EPU or NEAC conjure up the magic growth numbers previous administrations used to conjure up with ease. Why did they screw up?

I think because they tried to do too many things at the same time. They were planning to build the MRT, at the same time they were asking for subsidies to be reduced. They were proposing a restructuring of Government ownership in the GLCs at the same time they were calling for the redevelopment of the Sg. Besi airfield. They suffered from the curse of many con-sultans, talking a mile a minute but not having a proper plan that can be executed.
I think right now we can question the wisdom of setting Pemandu in the first place. Pemandu will be making a lot of tough recommendations without doing the necessary political calculus. But should Pemandu be blamed for it?

No, blame the man who came out with the idea in the first place. Business cannot advise Government. In Malaysia, you require a strong willed Prime Minister to be the face of the latest crazy idea to do things like transform a palm oil estate into a administrative capital, create a market based economy, etc. The role of the advisor is that of a shadowy person, not so obvious like Pemandu. Because then the people who disagree with the Government's idea can attack the outfits like Pemandu rather than attack the PM himself. This is exactly what Perkasa did, and rendered impotent most of the recommendations made by Pemandu.

3. A Stale Cabinet. The cabinet today is stale. People do not respect the Government. We have open accusations of corruption leveled against a Minister by a well known company and the Government does nothing. We have the political secretary to a Minister having RM 2 million cash in his apartment. We have ministers talking down to the people as if the people owe their living and livelihood to the Ministers.

The Conclusion

UMNO right now is weak in Selangor, Perlis, Kedah and Terengganu. That's 4 states where the party's internal disarray makes it possible for the Opposition to capitalize. Add to the equation the Opposition's expected domination in the West coast towns, 10 additional seats in Sarawak, 10 seats belonging to the MCA and we are looking at about 90-95 seats going the Oppositions way.

That would leave Barisan still in power but with a reduced majority. I think thats what keeping the PM on edge.