Opposition coalition may only create ripples instead of waves as in 2008, say pundits.
PETALING JAYA: A bleak picture has been painted of Pakatan in the Sarawak state election with observers saying that it would be difficult to for it match the 2008 general election upset.
At a forum organised by Merdeka Center last night, they noted that the opposition coalition was headed for a severe obstacle course in its attempts to muscle into BN strongholds.
Aside from the expected logistical and financial blocks, rural voter sentiment and an a predictable voting pattern among the native community, chances look to in BN’s favour.
Professor Jayum Anak Jawan of Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) said that political behaviour within the indigenous community hadn’t changed significantly to warrant a vote-swing.
“The Malay/Melanaus will never abandon their own kind,” he said. “They will support a Malay/Melanau candidate regardless of his party.”
“So if a Malay/Melanau candidate is contesting on an opposition ticket, that vote cannot be classified as a vote for the opposition.
“The Ibans are fairly unmoved by national events and place a higher priority on the culture and respect for their leaders. And they too, tend to vote for their people and not political parties.
“The Bidayuhs are a minority to make much of an impact or to lead theDayak community. The only volatile areas are the Chinese ones but even then winning 15 seats will not rock Sarawak.”
Jayum said Pakatan’s challenge is to reach out to the rural voters who he described as “displaced and lowly educated”.
PKR in particular, he said, would not go far because it’s a relatively new entity among the natives.
“You’re talking about simple people. They take everything at face value so until this group gets
politically-savvy the desired drastic change will remain elusive,” he said.However, there is a group of people whom Jayum believes is influential enough to make a difference – the 200,000 emerging professionals currently residing in Peninsula Malaysia.
As Dr Faisal Syam Hazis of Universiti Sarawak Malaysia (Unimas) emphasised, these are Sarawakians with access to alternative media like Sarawak Report and Radio Free Sarawak.
The question is how many of them will be returning to Sarawak to cast their votes on April 16.
“The election date was cleverly fixed between the school holidays two weeks ago and Hari Gawai in June,” said Faisal.
“It could be costly for the Dayaks to be flying to and fro so frequently and Gawai could take precedence over the elections.
“The winds of change are blowing in some parts of Sarawak but we don’t know what the tipping point is yet. If the situation is right, surprises could well happen. We shouldn’t underestimate people power,” added Faisal.
Referendum on the ruling party
He mused that a possible tipping point could be the ethno-religious issues especially among the Christians of Sarawak and added that sentiments have gone beyond the Al-Kitab issue.
“The Evangelical Church in Kuching has been distributing flyers urging Christians to hold special prayers for the future of Sarawak,” he said.
“A friend returned from the interiors of Baram recently and told me that the flyers had even reached the native churches there.”Jayum doubted that this outreach to the Dayaks would have an impact. He said that while the Dayaks were the most outspoken of the Christians, they made up a small part of the 43% of Christians in Sarawak.
“The majority of Christians are the mainstream Catholics, Methodists and the like, who are more interested in the afterlife than this one,” he said.
“I have asked many leaders whether they are talking to their congregation about bringing changes to Sarawak but they tell me that they respect the separation of state and religion. So I’m not sure how much weight ethno-religion will carry in this election.”
Jayum views the election as a referendum of the people on the ruling party but warned that it would not be a barometer for the next general election.
“Sarawak is unique, it is not similar to Peninsula,” he stressed. “The voting patterns there cannot be used to predict the outcome or direction of the general election.”
Kuala Selangor MP, Dzulkefly Ahmad, who was also present at the forum acknowledged that Pakatan had a uphill task in Sarawak that required a courageous and valiant fight.
“Sarawak is like a different country,” he said, concurring with Jayum. “But I believe in the possibility of an upset but not a two thirds majority. You need time for that kind of change.”
“Then again we never expected the 2008 tsunami either. If we can get our message across and the right modes of communication are available to us, we can make our presence felt.”
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